Massachusetts Graduation Rates & MCAS Scores

Analysis prepared March 2026. Data: DESE / E2C Hub / MCAS Service Center.

Key finding: Massachusetts graduation rates hit an all-time high in 2025 (Class of 2025), coinciding with the November 2024 passage of Ballot Question 2, which eliminated the MCAS test as a hard graduation requirement. At the same time, grade 10 MCAS scores for the same cohort were at post-plateau lows — the starkest decoupling of scores and graduation rates in the dataset.

1. Data Sources

Next Gen MCAS Achievement Results (2017–2025)
E2C Hub Socrata. Direct CSV: educationtocareer.data.mass.gov/api/views/i9w6-niyt/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD
Grade 3–10, ELA/Math/Science, district and school level, all student groups.
Legacy MCAS Achievement Results (2007–2023)
E2C Hub Socrata. Direct CSV: educationtocareer.data.mass.gov/api/views/ccsh-ajgw/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD
Same structure, old 200-280 score scale, performance levels: Proficient/Advanced/NI/Warning-Failing.
District Graduation Rates (2006–2025)
Scraped from profiles.doe.mass.edu/statereport/gradrates.aspx via a fresh-token POST loop (one Excel file per year, 2006–2025), converted to a combined CSV. All Students, 4-year cohort rate.

The two MCAS datasets do not overlap for grade 10 (legacy ends 2018, Next Gen begins 2019). A district-level regression calibration was used to project legacy scores onto the Next Gen scale (see Section 5).

2. Statewide Graduation Rate Trend (2006–2025)

Rates climbed steadily from 83.7% in 2006 to ~90% by 2020, then plateaued for five years (89.4–90.0%). The 2025 figure of 90.5% is the highest on record.

Year	Mean District Grad Rate	Note
2006	83.7%
2007	84.7%
2008	84.7%
2009	84.9%
2010	85.4%
2011	86.2%
2012	86.9%
2013	87.8%
2014	88.1%
2015	87.9%
2016	88.5%
2017	89.6%
2018	89.0%
2019	89.4%
2020	89.9%
2021	89.8%
2022	90.0%	COVID waiver (Class of 2022)
2023	89.9%
2024	89.4%
2025	90.5%	All-time high — Ballot Q2 (Class of 2025)

3. Boston Public Schools: 2024 vs. 2025

BPS has consistently trailed the state average by ~8–10 percentage points. The 2025 jump to 81.3% is an all-time high for the district.

Year	Cohort Size	Grad Rate	Change
2021	3,867	78.8%
2022	3,593	81.0%	+2.2 pp
2023	3,767	80.5%	−0.5 pp
2024	3,711	79.7%	−0.8 pp
2025	4,154	81.3%	+1.6 pp ← all-time high

4. Did Ballot Question 2 Raise Graduation Rates?

Ballot Question 2 passed November 5, 2024 (59% Yes), eliminating MCAS as a graduation requirement effective December 5, 2024 — mid-way through the Class of 2025's senior year. Students who had not yet passed the MCAS were immediately eligible to graduate through the new coursework-based pathway.

Evidence for a policy effect

Statewide mean grad rate rose +1.16 pp, the largest single-year gain since 2006–2007, and statistically significant (t=4.57, p<0.0001).
The gain was concentrated in lower-performing districts — exactly where the MCAS requirement would have been most binding.
Mean MCAS score change was essentially zero (+0.01 ELA, +0.001 Math) — ruling out genuine academic improvement as the driver.

Year-over-year change by prior-year quartile

Transition	Q1 (lowest)	Q2	Q3	Q4 (highest)	Overall Mean
2019→2020	+2.9	+1.1	−0.7	−1.1	+0.5
2020→2021	+1.6	−0.1	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
2021→2022 (COVID waiver)	+1.8	+0.2	−0.2	−0.9	+0.2
2022→2023	+1.2	−0.1	−0.7	−0.9	−0.1
2023→2024	+0.1	−0.4	−0.7	−1.2	−0.5
2024→2025 (Ballot Q2)	+4.1	+1.2	+0.6	−1.2	+1.2

Caveat — regression to the mean: The "Q1 gains most" pattern appears in nearly every year, not just policy-change years — districts with unusually low rates tend to bounce back the following year. Comparable Q1 gains occurred in 2015 (+4.4 pp) and 2013 (+4.2 pp) without any policy change. What is distinctive about 2025 is the combination of the largest overall mean and Q2 and Q3 also gaining, which is unusual. This is consistent with a broad policy effect, but cannot be conclusively attributed to the ballot measure without a more rigorous counterfactual design.

Districts with grad rate up ≥3 pp and MCAS flat/down (2024→2025, top 15)

District	Grad 2024	Grad 2025	Δ Grad (pp)	Δ ELA M+E
Narragansett	75.9%	90.9%	+15.0	0.0
North Adams	69.9%	83.9%	+14.0	0.0
Four Rivers Charter Public	86.2%	100.0%	+13.8	0.0
Southbridge	65.2%	78.6%	+13.4	0.0
Boston Collegiate Charter	81.9%	94.6%	+12.7	−0.1
Dennis-Yarmouth	77.9%	89.7%	+11.8	−0.1
Randolph	74.6%	85.9%	+11.3	0.0
Brockton	65.3%	75.4%	+10.1	0.0
Oxford	86.1%	95.2%	+9.1	0.0
Uxbridge	79.3%	87.8%	+8.5	0.0
Lawrence	74.0%	82.2%	+8.2	0.0
Haverhill	78.6%	86.7%	+8.1	0.0
Spencer-E Brookfield	68.1%	76.0%	+7.9	0.0
Marlborough	82.9%	90.7%	+7.8	0.0
Westport	90.0%	96.9%	+6.9	−0.1

5. MCAS Scores Over Time — Calibrated Long-Run Series

Why calibration is needed

Legacy MCAS (through 2018) uses a 200–280 scaled score and CPI (Composite Performance Index, 0–100). Next Gen MCAS (2019+) uses a 440–560 scaled score. No official crosswalk exists; DESE explicitly warns against comparing the two series directly.

Calibration method

Using the 2018 legacy CPI and 2019 Next Gen average scaled score for 297 matched districts, we fit a linear regression for ELA and Math separately. The 2018→2019 handoff is seamless: calibrated 2018 ELA predicts 505.6, actual 2019 was 506.0; Math predicts 503.9, actual 505.0.

Subject	Slope	Intercept	R²	n districts
ELA	2.179	296.0	0.47	297
Math	1.238	393.1	0.69	297

The ELA R² of 0.47 reflects meaningful noise. Calibrated ELA values are directionally reliable but should be treated as approximate. The Math fit (R²=0.69) is stronger and more credible.

Full calibrated time series

MCAS Year	ELA Score	Math Score	Source
2007	487.5	498.3	Legacy (calibrated)
2008	492.8	500.4	Legacy (calibrated)
2009	496.9	502.2	Legacy (calibrated)
2010	496.3	503.0	Legacy (calibrated)
2011	500.6	503.8	Legacy (calibrated)
2012	504.8	504.5	Legacy (calibrated)
2013	507.1	504.8	Legacy (calibrated)
2014	505.2	504.5	Legacy (calibrated)
2015	506.7	504.4	Legacy (calibrated)
2016	506.7	504.1	Legacy (calibrated)
2017	506.3	504.4	Legacy (calibrated)
2018	505.6	503.9	Legacy (calibrated)
2019	506.0	505.0	Next Gen (actual)
2021	507.0	501.0	Next Gen (actual)
2022	503.0	501.0	Next Gen (actual)
2023	504.0	500.0	Next Gen (actual)
2024	504.0	500.0	Next Gen (actual)
2025	499.0	498.0	Next Gen (actual)

ELA rose steadily 2007–2013, plateaued 2013–2021, then declined to 499 in 2025 — the lowest since ~2009. Math was roughly flat 2007–2019, then declined, reaching 498 in 2025 — near the series low (498.3 in 2007).

6. MCAS Scores vs. Graduation Rates (2-Year Cohort Lag)

Students take the grade 10 MCAS in year X and (if on track) graduate in year X+2. Aligning by cohort:

MCAS Year	Grad Year	ELA Score	Math Score	Avg Grad Rate
2007	2009	487.5	498.3	84.9%
2008	2010	492.8	500.4	85.4%
2009	2011	496.9	502.2	86.2%
2010	2012	496.3	503.0	86.9%
2011	2013	500.6	503.8	87.8%
2012	2014	504.8	504.5	88.1%
2013	2015	507.1	504.8	87.9%
2014	2016	505.2	504.5	88.5%
2015	2017	506.7	504.4	89.6%
2016	2018	506.7	504.1	89.0%
2017	2019	506.3	504.4	89.4%
2018	2020	505.6	503.9	89.9%
2019	2021	506.0	505.0	89.8%
2021	2023	507.0	501.0	89.9%
2022	2024	503.0	501.0	89.4%
2023	2025	504.0	500.0	90.5%

MCAS scores and graduation rates moved broadly together through ~2015. After that they decoupled: scores plateaued then declined, while graduation rates plateaued near 89–90%. In 2025, the cohort with post-plateau low MCAS scores achieved the highest graduation rate on record — consistent with the removal of the test-based graduation gate.

Cross-sectional correlation between MCAS meet/exceed % and district grad rates remains meaningful within each year (r≈0.60), suggesting MCAS still tracks underlying academic preparation. But year-over-year ΔMCAS and Δgrad rate are essentially uncorrelated (r≈0.02), meaning short-term MCAS changes don't predict short-term graduation rate changes.

7. Background: MCAS as a Graduation Requirement

2003: MCAS first required for graduation. Minimum score: 220 (Needs Improvement).
2010: Threshold raised to 240 (Proficient). EPP pathway still available at 220.
2019: Transition to Next Gen MCAS for grade 10. Interim cut scores set via matched-sample analysis.
2022: COVID waiver — Class of 2022 could substitute relevant coursework. Effect on grad rates was modest (+0.2 pp mean, Q1 +1.8 pp).
August 2022: Board voted to raise the bar for Classes of 2026–2031 to 486/500 — never implemented.
November 5, 2024: Ballot Question 2 passed (59% Yes). Funded primarily by the Massachusetts Teachers Association ($16M+).
December 5, 2024: MCAS graduation requirement eliminated. Students mid-year in the Class of 2025 immediately eligible under new coursework pathway.
Class of 2026+: Graduation requires: 2 years HS ELA, Algebra I + Geometry, 1 year science. MCAS continues statewide but scores no longer gate diploma issuance.